Energy: May 30, 2022

Energy Industry Study Report

This paper documents a top-level exploration of the global energy industry and its ramifications for the United States’ enduring interests and national security. Prior scholars at National Defense University conducted similar research and documented their results within publicly available reports. Current students examined reports from 2009 and 2018 to find gaps in the research and analyze trends within the energy industry. Previous reports conducted a point-in-time analysis of the energy industry and are therefore ripe for an update.

Aircraft (formerly Air Domain): May 30, 2022

Aerial Mass for Strategic Competition: The Quality-Quantity Paradox

As the United States (US) returns to strategic competition and contemplates large scale conventional conflict once again, several factors make a World War II-era surge of military aircraft production highly unlikely. The need for aerial mass, and the associated limitations to mass production in the military aviation industry, together constitute the problem addressed by this report, whose research question is: given constraints in tools, technology, training, and policy within the military aviation industry, what steps can the US government take to ensure sufficient mass for strategic competition?

Artificial Intelligence (formerly Emerging Technologies): May 30, 2022

In AI We Trust, All Others We Model

The NSCAI explained in its 2021final report that AI is a unique human invention that is not a single event or technology. Rather, AI is like what Thomas Edison said of electricity, “It is a field of fields… it holds the secrets which will reorganize the life of the world.” Today, we experience AI daily. We interact directly with digital assistants like Alexa, Siri, and Watson or the IRS has our tax returns analyzed by AI to detect fraud. However, the examples today are minor advances (the tip of an iceberg) in comparison to the transformation that is coming.

C4ISR: May 30, 2022

A Review of the C4ISR Industry Efforts to Implement the Concept for Joint All-Domain Command and Control (JADC2)

After the 2018 National Defense Strategy (NDS) release, the Joint Staff endeavored to modernize and enhance the U.S. global integrated defense posture and joint capabilities and concepts. The NDS recognized the emerging Great Power Competition (GPC) and refocused the Department of Defense’s (DoD) priorities. The Combatant Commands (CCMD), who report directly to the Secretary of Defense (SecDef), maintain theater-specific defense partnerships and force postures to respond to threats in their areas of responsibility. However, the strategic environment described in the NDS demanded transregional approaches and joint, All-Domain capabilities. Over the last four years, the resultant modernization efforts within the Services and the Joint Staff’s concept development for warfighting concepts to support the CCMDs intersected. The Joint All-Domain Command and Control (JADC2) concept emerged as the framework to connect the people, systems, and warfighting concepts.

Networking (Formerly Newsmedia, Information Communications and Technology) May 30, 2022

Networked Power: Addressing the Role of Networking & Communication Technologies in 21st-Century Influence Operations

The paper discusses how adversaries use propaganda, disinformation, and deception through modern networking and communication technology (NCT) to gain strategic advantages, with social media emerging as a powerful tool. NCT has made it easier and cheaper to influence large populations, shifting power from governments to individuals, creating new national security concerns. These methods are often used alongside diplomatic, military, or economic tools, but future strategies may prioritize information as a key instrument of power. While NCT can defend against malign influence and protect democratic values, it also poses risks, including threats to civil liberties. The U.S. and its allies are unprepared to address these challenges, risking ineffective responses that could harm free speech and privacy. The paper outlines research on NCT, providing recommendations for securing the benefits of a connected world through regulatory reform, partnerships, education, and national strategy.

Missile Defense (Formerly Weapons of Mass Destruction) May 22, 2022

Missile Defense

The return of great power competition coincides with the emergence of an age of missiles. The United States competes with a rising China and increasingly unstable and provocative Russia to shape security architectures and global norms and practices. In addition to Russia and China, the missile threat emanating from the rogue nations of North Korea and Iran toward the United States and its interests is evolving, and so must the United States’ ability to counter these rising threats. The U.S. missile defense enterprise is challenged to effectively counter adversaries’ growing offensive capabilities, including cruise missiles and hypersonic glide vehicles (HGV). A weak defense industrial base (DIB), the need to reallocate responsibilities amongst the entities involved with missile defense research, development, procurement, and sustainment, as well as the need to update the U.S. missile defense strategy and increase the speed and effectiveness of research and development hamper the U.S.’s ability to provide adequate missile defense.

Strategic Materials May 31, 2021

Securing Minerals Critical to National Security

2021 Antonelli Award Winner: The fragility of today’s critical minerals global value chain poses an untenable risk to the national security and economic prosperity of the United States. With domestic supply lagging after decades of underinvestment and inattention, the United States relies heavily upon foreign sources for dozens of mineral products that form the fabric of the U.S. economy and defense industrial base. While some of these foreign sources are steadfast U.S. allies, other less dependable foreign suppliers like China or politically unstable states represent serious supply vulnerabilities and risks. Exacerbating the situation, global trends in manufacturing and green technology portend higher future demand and heated competition for these vital materials. On its current path, the United States is not well-positioned to compete successfully for these essential components.

Artificial Intelligence (Formerly Emerging Technologies) Nov. 1, 2020

Artificial Intelligence and National Security

This paper seeks to examine the implications of artificial intelligence (AI) on U.S. national security organized in concordance with the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence Lines of Effort. While countless emerging technologies will be vital to national security in the years to come, AI is the one that has the potential to tie them all together and change how humankind lives. In the era of Great Power Competition, AI also promises to transform how wars are fought. Furthermore, Russia and China are undeterred by privacy concerns or the ethics of how AI should be employed. Thus, gaining a competitive advantage in AI must be a top priority for national strategy. However, while AI promises numerous benefits, it also presents many risks. U.S. policy must account for lost jobs, data security and privacy issues, and misinformation campaigns that will inevitably result as AI becomes more prevalent. The United States is at a critical juncture in the history of AI development and the consequences of failing to adapt are potentially dire. This paper offers analysis and solutions to augment a comprehensive U.S. AI strategy.

Biotechnology Oct. 30, 2020

Biotechnology

With thousands of people dying each day from the pandemic outbreak of 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19), 2020 brought challenges previously unseen in the world. As the world reacts and tries to overcome this virus, biotechnology will be the industry to take the lead and forge the path forward. It will not be without difficulty though as the United States (US) must surge and mobilize against an unplanned enemy and must wade through ethical issues previously unrealized. In addition, the triple helix – the interaction between academia, industry, and government – must ensure enough resilience and adaptability to respond to unanticipated circumstances and emerging needs.1 Collaboration within the US triple helix is essential to take advantage of opportunities and mitigate threats. Biotechnology, defined by the seminar as “Leveraging technology to understand living processes, organisms, and systems to alter and/or enhance health and performance, prevent and cure illnesses and diseases,”2 is often dual-use in nature with related risks and threats to public health and national security, as we are currently witnessing during the pandemic. In 2020 the possibilities and potential advantages of biotechnology have suddenly become extremely important as the world deals with a pandemic claiming hundreds of thousands of lives. The possibilities allowed with new technologies make biotechnology an exciting and fast-changing area of science.

C4ISR Oct. 16, 2020

Command, Control, Computers, Communications, Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (C4ISR)

For the second year, the Eisenhower School (ES) for National Security and Resource Strategy offered Command, Control, Computers Communications, Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (C4ISR) as an Industry Study (IS). The global pandemic outbreak of the Coronavirus-19 (COVID-19) in March 2020, resulted in all classroom lessons and field studies shifting to a virtual environment on March 12, 2020, as a result of the Department of Defense (DOD) Stop Movement Order and state mandated stay-at-home self-isolation policies. The specific focus for academic year 2019–2020 was Medium Altitude/Long-Endurance and High Altitude/Long-Endurance (MALE/HALE) Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS). The 2018 National Defense Strategy (NDS) outlines the U.S. strategy to compete, deter, and win in a complex security environment that is defined by rapid technological changes, new threats, and the impact of an extended armed conflict on readiness. Further, the NDS asserts that "Maintaining the Department's technological advantage will require changes to industry culture, investment sources, and protection across the National Security Innovation Base." In response to the NDS, the DOD has focused its strategy on rebuilding a more lethal force that is ready to contend with near peer adversaries such as China and Russia. In the area of C4ISR, the 2020 DOD budget request includes $56.84 billion, a 6% increase over 2019. The 2020 budget prioritizes maintenance and research and development to improve the current systems and the development of new technologies.