Ground Combat Systems (Formerly Land Domain, Land Combat Systems) Sept. 16, 2018

Land Combat Systems

Without argument, the global market for combat vehicles is on the rise. In both quality and quantity, the resurgence of state and multi-national threats has stoked demand for the development and delivery of modern weapon systems around the world. Furthermore, the increasingly rapid state of commercial technological innovation promises to answer that demand with increasingly capable defense applications delivered by both large Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEM) and non-traditional players operating in a highly competitive global market place. In 2016, the total military vehicle market is estimated to have earned revenues of approximately $35B for research, development and the procurement of new and upgraded weapon systems, delivering over 30,000 new and upgraded vehicles. By 2025, the market is forecasted to expand to over $45B in total annual revenue (6.6% Compound Annual Growth Rate) with the average price increasing at a rate of over 5% per year reflecting the high degree of technological advances resident in each system. According to Jane’s, over $443B will be spent on research, development, production, and modernization of military vehicles between 2016 and 2025. On average, innovation is incremental and accelerating, resulting in land combat systems that are increasingly more expensive to develop and fielded in decreasing time increments. Furthermore, the total number of systems is predicted to remain fairly steady as national preference shifts to quality over force structure growth as a means of countering rising threats.

Microelectronics (Formerly Electronics) Sept. 15, 2018

Microelectronics

The electronics industry, for the purpose of this study, is defined as the group of firms that engage in one or more aspects of the design, manufacture, testing, assembly, and packaging of microelectronic semiconductor integrated circuits (ICs). As a whole, the U.S. electronics industry is healthy. Many old and new firms have flourished thanks to Moore’s Law and market growth, despite industrial disaggregation consolidation and high entry barriers, particularly in manufacturing. Industry revenues have tripled over the past 20 years, and new semiconductor applications (e.g. cognitive computing, artificial intelligence) combined with growing markets in Asia portend an additional 50% growth over the next five years.

Autonomous Systems and Robotics (formerly Robotics and Autonomous Systems) Aug. 26, 2018

Robotics and Autonomous Systems

Robotics and autonomous systems (RAS) are poised to dramatically impact the concept of technological superiority, a primary source of national power. Vilified in the entertainment media, detested by labor unions, and declared, "more dangerous than nuclear weapons," by industry magnates such as Elon Musk, our culture is just beginning to see RAS as enhancing our lives rather than threatening them. But a tectonic shift in thinking in the last few years has placed RAS at the core of serious security and business strategies. When Advanced Research Projects Agency Network (ARPANET), the internet’s precursor, was created no one could envision the way we communicate, educate, entertain, and work today. The revolution with RAS and artificial intelligence (AI) will be even more profound. Machine autonomy will expand human capability in ways that we cannot yet imagine—but need to be ready for.

Reconstruction Aug. 22, 2018

Reconstruction

Despite our efforts to sustain global peace and expand prosperity, the world has been, and remains, an increasingly unstable place. In recent years the challenges of political instability, economic inequality, and environmental degradation have resulted in the largest migration flow of humanity that the world has experienced since at least the Second World War and perhaps in all of history. Whether people be fleeing persecution, seeking economic opportunity, or rebuilding after force majeure events, the demand for humanitarian relief and longer-term development assistance remains an immediate unquenchable thirst.

Maritime (Formerly Maritime Domain and Shipbuilding) Aug. 21, 2018

Plotting a Course Through Dangerous Waters: An Analysis of the Shipbuilding Industrial Base, Policies, Risks, and Opportunities

As the United States settles into the 21st century, the 2014 Russian invasion of Ukraine and China’s one road, one belt effort mark the public reemergence of great power competition and refocus America’s strategic priorities. The ability of the US to project power, maintain freedom of navigation in the commons and deter aggression has never been more critical. “The revisionist powers of China and Russia, the rogue states of Iran and North Korea, and transnational threat organizations, particularly jihadist terrorist groups—are actively competing against the United States and our allies and partners.” As America’s strategic rivals actively attempt to undermine her instruments of power, a strong industrial base acts as a countervailing force to their efforts. The ability to field, man and maintain an effective seagoing force is fundamental to protecting the homeland, promoting American prosperity here and abroad, preserving peace through strength, and advancing American influence.

Space Aug. 20, 2018

Space

The AY18 Space Industry Study approached industry analysis using the Harvard Business School framework of Structure, Conduct, and Performance. The framework was applied through academic analysis followed by gathering first-hand data in an extensive series of face-to-face interviews and on-site facility visits with leaders in the military, civil, and commercial space enterprise. This paper analyzes how to capitalize on the emerging small satellite constellation market based on its current and potential future capabilities to enhance resilience in the national security space (NSS) architecture.

Strategic Materials Aug. 18, 2018

Strategic Materials

For several years, STRATMAT has focused its study on minerals and materials that support the United States's (US) national security efforts. With this broad scope background and the concomitant institutional knowledge that one might consider a "head start," STRATMAT was eager to draft a response to Executive Order 13817, 20 December 2017, "A Federal Strategy To Ensure Secure and Reliable Supplies of Critical Minerals." ("Order"). The Order was issued in the context of growing US security and prosperity dependencies on foreign imports. The US is in the midst of a necessary, growing recognition that its domestic economy - and, therefore, the nation itself - is increasingly reliant on foreign suppliers of both raw critical minerals and the processes necessary to bring them into application. Critical minerals and strategic materials - terms that this paper shall address in detail - are now constantly present in our collective experience. These substances are essential to virtually all products upon which we rely. One need only consider: the smartphone, used to pay a bill that keeps the household electricity account in good order; the artificial intelligence system, built to more accurately identify market trends and inform trading decisions; and, the advanced weapons system, designed to accurately apply lethal force.

Transportation and Logistics (Formerly Transportation, Global Agility) Aug. 17, 2018

Transportation Industry Study

The transportation industry is critical to the National Security Innovation Base (NSIB) and the Defense Industrial Base (DIB). A diverse industry with multiple markets and sectors, some segments are on the verge of significant change; all are impacted by challenges and opportunities involving infrastructure, human capital, and automation. Private firms and the government should accept and engender change in the transportation industry to improve the ability for the United States of America to mobilize industry and the military for the 21st Century. The timing for this paper, which will showcase the importance of disruptive technology / innovation, human capital, regulations, and resourcing in accelerating or impeding that change, is critical given President Donald J. Trump Administration’s $1.5 trillion infrastructure plan recently released in February 2018.1 The current Administration, Congress, and Industry have the perfect opportunity to resource the U.S. Transportation Industry, which is the backbone upon which American industry mobilizes for war, projects power globally, and sustains forces worldwide in accordance with the National Security Strategy.

Weapons (Formerly Munitions) Aug. 15, 2018

Enhancing the Industrial and Innovation Base of the Weapons Industry to Retain U.S. Military-Technological Overmatch

Weapons and their enabling technologies are critical capabilities that underpin the need for U.S. military overmatch and lethality, as highlighted in the NSS and NDS. The industrial and innovation base and supply chains that enable weapons research, development, and production are important to the larger U.S. defense industry. First, weapons are critical to enabling overmatch in U.S. and allied warfighting capabilities versus near-peer competitors Russia and China, as well as against adversaries threatening U.S. interests such as North Korea, Iran, and violent extremist organizations. Second, weapons are critical items that require production and prepositioning to prepare for crises and conflicts and can be quickly consumed once fighting breaks out.3 Next, just as they were a critical component of the precision strike “second offset” of U.S. defense technology, weapons and their enabling technologies will almost certainly be an important element—the lethality element—of any future “third offset” in U.S. defense technology. Weapons in combination with technologies such as autonomous systems, artificial intelligence, robotics, space, sensors, communications, and cyber could very well lead the “third offset.”4 Fourth, weapons and their enabling technologies play a vital role in driving the U.S. defense industry to constantly develop and produce more advanced technologies in areas such as explosives, warheads, guidance and control, propulsion, and other key technologies.5 Finally, weapons play a key part of U.S. foreign cooperation with allies and partners to provide strategic advantage by enhancing capabilities. This includes the export of weapons through Foreign Military Sales (FMS) and Direct Commercial Sales (DCS) programs as well as cooperating on joint development and production efforts.

Agribusiness: Dec. 30, 2017

Agribusiness

Our nation’s food security lies in the strength and sustainment of the Agribusiness Industry. Famine and hunger contribute to political instability within and between sovereign borders and negatively impact global world order. The United States should beware of exogenous events and focus on maintaining the strength of the industry by: 1) responding to water scarcity and the threats that may accompany the growing value of water, 2) addressing the ability to maintain a reliable labor force for farming, 3) developing adaptive strategies that address the effects of climate change and 4) ensuring the domestic population is protected from food insecurity.