Space March 23, 2021

Renewing U.S. Great Power Competitiveness in Space

This report culminates a semester-long study of the challenges, threats, and opportunities the United States faces in the space domain. The Space Domain Industry Study at the Eisenhower School for National Security and Resource Strategy at the National Defense University for the academic year 2020-2021 pursued the following overarching research focus areas: Given recent Department of Defense (DoD) space policy reforms, renewed great power competition, and the rapid growth of commercial space activity: a. How should the U.S. improve its ability to rapidly field operational space capabilities through industrial speed and agility to address Chinese and Russian counterspace threats? b. How should the U.S. improve its ability to sustain and enhance the market health of the space industrial base by facilitating globally competitive, sustainable business plans with improved innovation? Human space activity stands at a historic inflection point. A proliferation of counterspace systems and escalating competition among military space powers threaten a domain that underwrites U.S. military strength and powers the global economy. U.S. leadership in space is increasingly in doubt, and the nation must act immediately to build and sustain a long-term national competitive advantage in space.

Strategic Materials March 23, 2021

Securing Minerals Critical to National Security

The fragility of today’s critical minerals global value chain poses an untenable risk to the national security and economic prosperity of the United States. With domestic supply lagging after decades of underinvestment and inattention, the United States relies heavily upon foreign sources for dozens of mineral products that form the fabric of the U.S. economy and defense industrial base. While some of these foreign sources are steadfast U.S. allies, other less dependable foreign suppliers like China or politically unstable states represent serious supply vulnerabilities and risks. Exacerbating the situation, global trends in manufacturing and green technology portend higher future demand and heated competition for these vital materials. On its current path, the United States is not well-positioned to compete successfully for these essential components. Mineral extraction and processing is a notoriously expensive, complex, and risky industry subject to the vagaries of price swings. Such difficult market forces reinforced by unsupportive investment climates and weak social licenses to operate at home and abroad have led to an underdeveloped domestic minerals sector and serious challenges for U.S. mining companies overseas. This dynamic has led to a divergence between what the United States needs for its national security and what the free market is able to provide. By contrast, U.S. competitors, like China, eschew free market principles to successfully prop up domestic champions, manipulate minerals markets, and use political pressure to access minerals overseas.

Biotechnology March 23, 2021

Securing America’s Future in Biotechnology

The United States (U.S.) is currently the global leader in the human health segment of biotechnology. However, China, Russia, and other countries are also devoting significant resources to compete in the biotechnology industry. In an era of Great Power Competition, where nations are vying for power and influence, economic and national security requires a holistic, balanced, and sustainable strategy. The U.S. must set conditions for success to remain the leader and mature an ethical and innovative biotechnology ecosystem, fortifying all instruments of national power. The U.S. must set the conditions for success to remain the leader in biotechnology. Future human health, economic growth, and national security will depend on governments, academia, and industry taking the proper steps to grow a thriving and ethical biotechnology industry while making strategic investments to maintain primacy against peer competitors such as China. The U.S. must proactively invest in human capital, government enablement, and other foundational components of the biotechnology ecosystem to secure its competitive advantage and remain ahead of its rivals in biotechnology. The recommendations contained in this paper will benefit the entire economy and the DoD in particular.

Cyberspace and Advanced Computing Industry Study (Formerly Cyber) March 23, 2021

Winning in Cyberspace by Improving Coordination, Supporting Innovation, and Securing Supply Chains

In the 21st century, cyberspace and the advanced computing industry are at the heart of great power competition and the rapidly changing character of war. How well the United States competes in this industry will impact its economic and national security. U.S. cyber policy influences the conduct of the government, business, civil society, and individuals, and it cuts across political, legal, economic, and ethical interests. Because of the impact of cyber policy on all facets of American life and the breadth of policy required, it is essential for the U.S. government to coordinate and orchestrate lines of effort to achieve desired objectives. This paper examines the current cyber strategic environment, surveys significant stakeholders and their interests, analyzes the strengths and weaknesses of key international players, describes the industry’s outlook, and makes recommendations for U.S. policy. Key recommendations include restructuring the U.S. government to orchestrate better domestic policy and international leadership, investing in innovation and human capital to remain competitive, and securing and diversifying strategic supply chains.

Artificial Intelligence (Formerly Emerging Technologies) Nov. 1, 2020

Artificial Intelligence and National Security

This paper seeks to examine the implications of artificial intelligence (AI) on U.S. national security organized in concordance with the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence Lines of Effort. While countless emerging technologies will be vital to national security in the years to come, AI is the one that has the potential to tie them all together and change how humankind lives. In the era of Great Power Competition, AI also promises to transform how wars are fought. Furthermore, Russia and China are undeterred by privacy concerns or the ethics of how AI should be employed. Thus, gaining a competitive advantage in AI must be a top priority for national strategy. However, while AI promises numerous benefits, it also presents many risks. U.S. policy must account for lost jobs, data security and privacy issues, and misinformation campaigns that will inevitably result as AI becomes more prevalent. The United States is at a critical juncture in the history of AI development and the consequences of failing to adapt are potentially dire. This paper offers analysis and solutions to augment a comprehensive U.S. AI strategy.

Biotechnology Oct. 30, 2020

Biotechnology

With thousands of people dying each day from the pandemic outbreak of 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19), 2020 brought challenges previously unseen in the world. As the world reacts and tries to overcome this virus, biotechnology will be the industry to take the lead and forge the path forward. It will not be without difficulty though as the United States (US) must surge and mobilize against an unplanned enemy and must wade through ethical issues previously unrealized. In addition, the triple helix – the interaction between academia, industry, and government – must ensure enough resilience and adaptability to respond to unanticipated circumstances and emerging needs.1 Collaboration within the US triple helix is essential to take advantage of opportunities and mitigate threats. Biotechnology, defined by the seminar as “Leveraging technology to understand living processes, organisms, and systems to alter and/or enhance health and performance, prevent and cure illnesses and diseases,”2 is often dual-use in nature with related risks and threats to public health and national security, as we are currently witnessing during the pandemic. In 2020 the possibilities and potential advantages of biotechnology have suddenly become extremely important as the world deals with a pandemic claiming hundreds of thousands of lives. The possibilities allowed with new technologies make biotechnology an exciting and fast-changing area of science.

C4ISR Oct. 16, 2020

Command, Control, Computers, Communications, Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (C4ISR)

For the second year, the Eisenhower School (ES) for National Security and Resource Strategy offered Command, Control, Computers Communications, Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (C4ISR) as an Industry Study (IS). The global pandemic outbreak of the Coronavirus-19 (COVID-19) in March 2020, resulted in all classroom lessons and field studies shifting to a virtual environment on March 12, 2020, as a result of the Department of Defense (DOD) Stop Movement Order and state mandated stay-at-home self-isolation policies. The specific focus for academic year 2019–2020 was Medium Altitude/Long-Endurance and High Altitude/Long-Endurance (MALE/HALE) Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS). The 2018 National Defense Strategy (NDS) outlines the U.S. strategy to compete, deter, and win in a complex security environment that is defined by rapid technological changes, new threats, and the impact of an extended armed conflict on readiness. Further, the NDS asserts that "Maintaining the Department's technological advantage will require changes to industry culture, investment sources, and protection across the National Security Innovation Base." In response to the NDS, the DOD has focused its strategy on rebuilding a more lethal force that is ready to contend with near peer adversaries such as China and Russia. In the area of C4ISR, the 2020 DOD budget request includes $56.84 billion, a 6% increase over 2019. The 2020 budget prioritizes maintenance and research and development to improve the current systems and the development of new technologies.

Electromagnetic Warfare (Formerly Electronic Warfare) Oct. 16, 2020

Electronic Warfare

Since the pivot to Great Power Competition in the 2018 National Defense Strategy, both the Department of Defense (DOD) and Congress have increased attention to Electronic Warfare (EW) and the Electromagnetic Spectrum (EMS). The Congressionally mandated National Defense Strategy Commission stated that “the United States is losing its advantages in electronic warfare, hindering the nation’s ability to conduct military operations against capable adversaries.” As a result, every Service Chief announced intent to “modernize” their approach to control and manipulation of the EMS.1 To regain and maintain our competitive edge in the EMS, the DOD must commit to continuing and expanding the EW momentum and move out of its comfort zone with both industry and the warfighter.

Transportation and Logistics (Formerly Global Agility, Transportation) Oct. 15, 2020

Global Agility

This report provides an overview of issues present within the Global Agility (GA) ecosystem and proposes recommendations for improvement. Research was conducted on the Global Agility (GA) ecosystem consisting of seven industries: Rail, Trucking, Air Freight, Ports and Harbors, Deep Water Shipping, Inland Waterways, and Warehousing. Students examined the role of each industry in the movement of goods worldwide along with its impact on the national security of the United States (U.S.). Instructors placed emphasis on how these industries support Joint Force mobilization to deter or defeat a great power competitor. Within the GA ecosystem, there are many shared challenges which, if not addressed, will limit the U.S. from achieving its full economic potential. This leads to the conclusion that to effectively support mobilization, the U.S. Government must develop a national transportation plan that prioritizes strategic resources and optimizes infrastructure across all modes. Without a national strategic plan, research indicates these shared challenges will negatively impact the nation’s ability to flow and sustain the Joint Force and may impair the Nation’s strategic options in times of crisis.

Energy Oct. 15, 2020

Energy

The Eisenhower School (ES) Energy Industry Studies seminar is a practical course integrating real-world perspectives through domestic and international guest lectures, industry visits, policy maker and think-tank expert engagements, and, discussions analyzing the domestic and international policies and market forces affecting the U.S. and global economies, and, national and international security. Specifically, the Energy Industry Studies seminar focuses on the confluence of energy sources, transition, security, diplomacy, geopolitical influence and mobilization and its significance within the United States (U.S.) National Security Strategy (NSS) and the U.S. National Defense Strategy (NDS). Students examine energy sources to include fossil fuels (oil, gas, coal), solar, wind, geothermal, hydropower, nuclear, and tidal, and, explore the energy industrial eco-system to include stakeholders and supply chains (generation, transmission, distribution); energy efficiency and storage; emerging technologies and innovation; financing; markets; and human capital. The seminar prepares our national security practitioners to comprehend and conceptualize the role of energy; the global energy transition (fossil fuels to zero carbon); the impact of an energy transition on national and global security, its influence on the alignment of global economies and strategic geopolitical influence. The seminar culminates with policy recommendations that integrate U.S. instruments of power to further U.S. energy security and dominance and fulfill the NSS and NDS objectives.