Energy: May 30, 2022

Energy Industry Study Report

This paper documents a top-level exploration of the global energy industry and its ramifications for the United States’ enduring interests and national security. Prior scholars at National Defense University conducted similar research and documented their results within publicly available reports. Current students examined reports from 2009 and 2018 to find gaps in the research and analyze trends within the energy industry. Previous reports conducted a point-in-time analysis of the energy industry and are therefore ripe for an update.

Aircraft (formerly Air Domain): May 30, 2022

Aerial Mass for Strategic Competition: The Quality-Quantity Paradox

As the United States (US) returns to strategic competition and contemplates large scale conventional conflict once again, several factors make a World War II-era surge of military aircraft production highly unlikely. The need for aerial mass, and the associated limitations to mass production in the military aviation industry, together constitute the problem addressed by this report, whose research question is: given constraints in tools, technology, training, and policy within the military aviation industry, what steps can the US government take to ensure sufficient mass for strategic competition?

Artificial Intelligence (formerly Emerging Technologies): May 30, 2022

In AI We Trust, All Others We Model

The NSCAI explained in its 2021final report that AI is a unique human invention that is not a single event or technology. Rather, AI is like what Thomas Edison said of electricity, “It is a field of fields… it holds the secrets which will reorganize the life of the world.” Today, we experience AI daily. We interact directly with digital assistants like Alexa, Siri, and Watson or the IRS has our tax returns analyzed by AI to detect fraud. However, the examples today are minor advances (the tip of an iceberg) in comparison to the transformation that is coming.

C4ISR: May 30, 2022

A Review of the C4ISR Industry Efforts to Implement the Concept for Joint All-Domain Command and Control (JADC2)

After the 2018 National Defense Strategy (NDS) release, the Joint Staff endeavored to modernize and enhance the U.S. global integrated defense posture and joint capabilities and concepts. The NDS recognized the emerging Great Power Competition (GPC) and refocused the Department of Defense’s (DoD) priorities. The Combatant Commands (CCMD), who report directly to the Secretary of Defense (SecDef), maintain theater-specific defense partnerships and force postures to respond to threats in their areas of responsibility. However, the strategic environment described in the NDS demanded transregional approaches and joint, All-Domain capabilities. Over the last four years, the resultant modernization efforts within the Services and the Joint Staff’s concept development for warfighting concepts to support the CCMDs intersected. The Joint All-Domain Command and Control (JADC2) concept emerged as the framework to connect the people, systems, and warfighting concepts.

Networking (Formerly Newsmedia, Information Communications and Technology) May 30, 2022

Networked Power: Addressing the Role of Networking & Communication Technologies in 21st-Century Influence Operations

The paper discusses how adversaries use propaganda, disinformation, and deception through modern networking and communication technology (NCT) to gain strategic advantages, with social media emerging as a powerful tool. NCT has made it easier and cheaper to influence large populations, shifting power from governments to individuals, creating new national security concerns. These methods are often used alongside diplomatic, military, or economic tools, but future strategies may prioritize information as a key instrument of power. While NCT can defend against malign influence and protect democratic values, it also poses risks, including threats to civil liberties. The U.S. and its allies are unprepared to address these challenges, risking ineffective responses that could harm free speech and privacy. The paper outlines research on NCT, providing recommendations for securing the benefits of a connected world through regulatory reform, partnerships, education, and national strategy.

Missile Defense (Formerly Weapons of Mass Destruction) May 22, 2022

Missile Defense

The return of great power competition coincides with the emergence of an age of missiles. The United States competes with a rising China and increasingly unstable and provocative Russia to shape security architectures and global norms and practices. In addition to Russia and China, the missile threat emanating from the rogue nations of North Korea and Iran toward the United States and its interests is evolving, and so must the United States’ ability to counter these rising threats. The U.S. missile defense enterprise is challenged to effectively counter adversaries’ growing offensive capabilities, including cruise missiles and hypersonic glide vehicles (HGV). A weak defense industrial base (DIB), the need to reallocate responsibilities amongst the entities involved with missile defense research, development, procurement, and sustainment, as well as the need to update the U.S. missile defense strategy and increase the speed and effectiveness of research and development hamper the U.S.’s ability to provide adequate missile defense.

Aircraft (Formerly Air Domain) Aug. 15, 2021

Modernizing the 2030 Future Force For Great Power Combat

The dawn of the 21st century presented America with a unipolar world free from large-scale competition with great powers. September 11, 2001, forever changed the world and shifted America's focus, significantly impacting the United States’ National Defense Strategy. This dramatic shift in focus embroiled America into a decades-long counter-insurgency regional conflict in the Middle East and Central Asia. The post 9/11 emphasis on non-state actors and unconventional warfare drove new requirements centered on small-scale regional conflict, reducing resourcing and acquisitions programs needed to compete in Great Power Combat. Twenty years later, the United States is experiencing a global shift in strategic competition as Russia and China grapple with expanding their spheres of influence. It is now clear the world is entering an era of multipolar Great Power Competition. America is facing a different world, containing multiple peer competitors striving to gain a worldwide strategic advantage. Moreover, Russia and China's advanced military modernization programs are rapidly reducing the technical and military superiority the U.S. has enjoyed over the past several decades. As a result, America must refocus on Great Power Competition to ensure the military is ready and resourced to fight tonight while developing a future force for 2030. The 2030 force drives new resourcing requirements to meet the challenges of this complex global security environment.1 The return to Great Power Competition presents the United States with an increasingly lethal and disruptive battlefield, across multiple domains with ever-increasing speed and reach of forces that render long-standing forward “sanctuary” bases vulnerable.2 This new paradigm obliges America to preserve its “fight tonight” force while modernizing and resourcing a future 2030 force capable of high-end, near-peer conflict and long-range strike in a contested and degraded operational battlespace.

Electromagnetic Warfare (Formerly Electronic Warfare) Aug. 10, 2021

Electronic Warfare

The U.S. military faces an inflection point in how it will develop, resource and field the capabilities it needs to effectively control electromagnetic spectrum operations (EMSO) in this era of great power competition (GPC). Notwithstanding the September 2020 release of its Electromagnetic Spectrum Superiority Strategy (ESSS) and other guidance, the U.S. remains challenged in integrating government, industry, academic, and foreign partner electromagnetic warfare (EW) efforts to achieve its national security objectives.1 Disparate approaches have yielded significant EW advances among the military services, which have capitalized on research and development (R&D) within the field. However, to maximize its capabilities and counter adversaries’ ability to use the electromagnetic spectrum (EMS) to the nation’s detriment, the Department of Defense (DoD) must empower and resource a strategically positioned change agent to implement and integrate EW efforts. This agent must address doctrine, organization, training, materiel, leadership and education, personnel, facilities and policy (DOTMLPF-P), leveraging and building upon its strengths, and those of its strategic stakeholders and partners.

Strategic Materials May 31, 2021

Securing Minerals Critical to National Security

2021 Antonelli Award Winner: The fragility of today’s critical minerals global value chain poses an untenable risk to the national security and economic prosperity of the United States. With domestic supply lagging after decades of underinvestment and inattention, the United States relies heavily upon foreign sources for dozens of mineral products that form the fabric of the U.S. economy and defense industrial base. While some of these foreign sources are steadfast U.S. allies, other less dependable foreign suppliers like China or politically unstable states represent serious supply vulnerabilities and risks. Exacerbating the situation, global trends in manufacturing and green technology portend higher future demand and heated competition for these vital materials. On its current path, the United States is not well-positioned to compete successfully for these essential components.

Artificial Intelligence (Formerly Emerging Technologies) Nov. 1, 2020

Artificial Intelligence and National Security

This paper seeks to examine the implications of artificial intelligence (AI) on U.S. national security organized in concordance with the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence Lines of Effort. While countless emerging technologies will be vital to national security in the years to come, AI is the one that has the potential to tie them all together and change how humankind lives. In the era of Great Power Competition, AI also promises to transform how wars are fought. Furthermore, Russia and China are undeterred by privacy concerns or the ethics of how AI should be employed. Thus, gaining a competitive advantage in AI must be a top priority for national strategy. However, while AI promises numerous benefits, it also presents many risks. U.S. policy must account for lost jobs, data security and privacy issues, and misinformation campaigns that will inevitably result as AI becomes more prevalent. The United States is at a critical juncture in the history of AI development and the consequences of failing to adapt are potentially dire. This paper offers analysis and solutions to augment a comprehensive U.S. AI strategy.