Strategic Materials: May 30, 2022

Toward an Industrial Security Strategy to Safeguard Access to Critical Minerals

Access to minerals is critical to U.S. economic and national security. However, in recent years, China and Russia have gained strategic advantages in critical mineral global supply chains, introducing unacceptable risks to the U.S. industrial base. In response, the United States must develop and execute a comprehensive, long-term industrial security strategy with its allies and partners to expand reliable and assured access to critical minerals.

Space: May 30, 2022

The Need for Speed: Leveraging Commercial Space Markets to Accelerate U.S. National Interests in Space

The United States’ space superiority is being challenged by the pacing threats of China and Russia. Both countries understand the United States’ economic dependence on space and the degree to which American military advantages rely on space-based assets. They have, in turn, developed capabilities and strategies to deny use of these advantages in the event of conflict. At the same time, a revolution is underway in the commercial space industry that has led to an explosion of new companies, capabilities, and business models that are democratizing access to space and rapidly increasing the opportunities available to the U.S., our allies, and partners.

Robotics and Autonomous Systems May 30, 2022

Shaping a Responsible and Security Future with Robotics and Autonomous Systems

The United States’ ability to promote innovation and growth in the robotics and autonomous system (RAS) industries directly impacts US national security and global stability. The character of warfare is constantly evolving. Recent events in Ukraine (and previously in Nagorno-Karabakh) revealed that RAS represents a disruptive technology at the leading edge of that evolution. RAS enable smaller, dispersed forces to effectively challenge legacy sources of military strength in the air, on land, and at sea.

Weapons (Formerly Munitions) May 30, 2022

The Munitions Industrial Base: Is Good Enough Really Good Enough?

The ability of the United States to readily deter, deny, and defeat its adversaries is directly tied to its military capabilities. Coming out of the nation’s longest period of armed conflict, the United States continues to face challenges from adversaries in every operating domain. Whether the nation is at war or at peace, readiness is essential. As a top priority, the Department of Defense (DOD) continues to assess the best strategy for managing and operating the defense industrial base (DIB) as the operational environment continues to evolve at the pace of adversary motivation. Difficult choices must be made in prioritizing what is most important to field a ready, lethal, adaptive, and resilient military.

Finance (Formerly Financial Services) May 30, 2022

Optimizing the Financing of Innovation to Accelerate National Security Capabilities

The U.S. finance industry is robust and well-resourced, offering a range of commercial and consumer banking, lending, and investment services to individuals and institutions across the country and the globe. Innovation within the finance industry is usually financed by risk capital firms seeking innovation with the potential for commercial success and high returns on investment. Financing innovation is considered a high-risk endeavor due to high startup failure rates, unproven technology, and the challenges of scaling to market production. Finding and applying innovation funding for potential defense market products is even more difficult, given the single buyer in the form of the DoD, the consolidated nature of the private defense industry, and the draw of higher, faster returns in the commercial sector. These factors limit private investment in national security-oriented start-ups. They also resulted in a divergence between the high technology capabilities in the commercial marketplace and the outmoded technology often found within the DoD and the broader U.S. Government (USG). To correct this imbalance, the DoD must take the following actions: increase and expand the investment tools within the innovation ecosystem, scale innovation ecosystem products to operations, and support America’s continued innovation advantage to be more relevant, complementary, and agile.

Environment: May 30, 2022

Environment and Climate Industry Study

The overarching purpose of the Environment & Climate Industry Study is to assess U.S. and international competitiveness in the environmental and climate sector(s) of industry within the context of national security, broadly defined. The environmental industry includes firms providing a wide array of goods and services, all with an environmental aim — from waste management and environmental protection to water utilities and regulatory compliance. The related climate change industry includes those activities aimed at minimizing the negative impacts of human activity on the climate, like renewable energy, green buildings, and adaptation and mitigation efforts designed to help society cope with climate-related events without sacrificing quality of life. Firms operating in this “industry of industries” face numerous challenges, not the least of which is ideological. Widely identified as a national security threat, climate change is altering the way many on the planet live and contributing to geopolitical flashpoints that affect human, national, and global security. The U.S. government must recognize (a) the dependency of its economic strength on global environmental security, and (b) its leadership role in shaping environmental, climate, and economic policies, both domestically and internationally. By leveraging the strength of U.S. environmental firms that are already shaping market and consumer behavior, government can accelerate mitigation and adaptation efforts, embrace innovation that increases efficiency, sustainability, and resilience, and produce stronger domestic and global economies, with attendant benefits to human, environmental, national, and global security.

Maritime (formerly Sea Domain): May 30, 2022

Righting the Ship: Positioning the U.S. Maritime Industrial Base to Mobilize in the 21st Century Strategic Competition

Since the turn of the twenty-first century, China’s maritime interests (the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN), Chinese Coast Guard, and Maritime Militia) have rapidly accelerated on a path to challenge United States’ naval supremacy. As a result, the United States is moving to modernize its Naval Service, defined collectively as the U.S. Navy, the U.S. Marine Corps, and the U.S. Coast Guard, into an integrated all-domain force that excels in Distributed Maritime Operations to maintain the advantage at sea and enforce foreign policy objectives.

Energy: May 30, 2022

Energy Industry Study Report

This paper documents a top-level exploration of the global energy industry and its ramifications for the United States’ enduring interests and national security. Prior scholars at National Defense University conducted similar research and documented their results within publicly available reports. Current students examined reports from 2009 and 2018 to find gaps in the research and analyze trends within the energy industry. Previous reports conducted a point-in-time analysis of the energy industry and are therefore ripe for an update.

Aircraft (formerly Air Domain): May 30, 2022

Aerial Mass for Strategic Competition: The Quality-Quantity Paradox

As the United States (US) returns to strategic competition and contemplates large scale conventional conflict once again, several factors make a World War II-era surge of military aircraft production highly unlikely. The need for aerial mass, and the associated limitations to mass production in the military aviation industry, together constitute the problem addressed by this report, whose research question is: given constraints in tools, technology, training, and policy within the military aviation industry, what steps can the US government take to ensure sufficient mass for strategic competition?

Artificial Intelligence (formerly Emerging Technologies): May 30, 2022

In AI We Trust, All Others We Model

The NSCAI explained in its 2021final report that AI is a unique human invention that is not a single event or technology. Rather, AI is like what Thomas Edison said of electricity, “It is a field of fields… it holds the secrets which will reorganize the life of the world.” Today, we experience AI daily. We interact directly with digital assistants like Alexa, Siri, and Watson or the IRS has our tax returns analyzed by AI to detect fraud. However, the examples today are minor advances (the tip of an iceberg) in comparison to the transformation that is coming.