Robotics and Autonomous Systems: May 30, 2023

The Rise of Robots and Autonomous Systems: Unraveling the Challenges in U.S. Commercial and Defense RAS Industries

General Douglas MacArthur is famously credited with saying, “Military failure can almost always be summarized in just two words: Too late.” Recently, the Secretary of the Air Force, Frank Kendall, resurrected this phrase to warn slow technological movement would place the United States at a strategic military disadvantage, with potentially devastating effects. As the U.S. faces a pacing challenge with China, with implications for the global world order, U.S. Robotics and Autonomous Systems (RAS) advancement will play a critical role. The 2022 National Defense Strategy emphasizes autonomous technology as an asymmetric approach to deter aggression, change kinetic conflict, and complicate escalation dynamics. The Department of Defense (DoD) seeks to mature autonomous technology through strategic investments in the domestic ecosystem and with U.S. allies and partners. The rapid advancement of commercial RAS drives the need for DoD to be a fast follower, rapidly incorporating commercial capabilities into military-relevant capabilities. Unlike many industries, the greatest obstacles to full RAS incorporation, commercially and militarily, will be cultural, ethical, and social. Accordingly, for the DoD to achieve superiority across the RAS industry, the United States must deftly navigate not only the technological challenges, but also the “soft” challenges: safety, social acceptance, trust, and human-machine integration.

Shipbuilding: May 30, 2023

Navigating the Waves: Assessing and Addressing Key Issues in U.S. Shipbuilding and Repair

For over seven decades, the United States has championed a rules-based global order, allowing international commerce to flourish. The 2022 National Security Strategy (NSS) reaffirms this vision, specifying the United States' commitment to “an open, prosperous, and secure international order…free from aggression, coercion, and intimidation.” Critical to fulfilling this ambition is ensuring the United States has the military capacity to protect its territory and project its global power. To achieve this, the United States Government must dedicate time and resources to modernize and strengthen its military, equipping it to successfully prevail in great power competition with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) while addressing acute threats such as Vladimir Putin’s Russia.

Space May 31, 2024

The Strategic Necessity to Integrate Commercial In-Space Servicing, Assembly, And Manufacturing (ISAM) into United States Space Force Capabilities

The creation of the U.S. Space Force (USSF) reflects the growing strategic and economic importance of space. The rapid development of commercial space technologies, particularly In-Space Servicing, Assembly, and Manufacturing (ISAM), offers the USSF opportunities to enhance its space capabilities and maintain superiority. By investing in commercial ISAM, coordinating with allies, and fostering market growth, the USSF can achieve long-term cost savings and innovation. The report recommends policy actions such as adjusting USSF resource allocations, stimulating ISAM market competition, creating a Space Investment Fund, and advocating for regulatory reform. These steps will help the USSF stay competitive and lead in space operations.

Space: May 30, 2023

Transforming the Defense Space Architecture with the Tools of the U.S. Federal Government

2023 Antonelli Award Winner -- The asymmetric advantage the United States has long enjoyed in space diminishes as adversaries threaten the space system architecture underlying that advantage. The U.S. space system architecture depends on large, exquisite capabilities and a ground segment to manage and link those capabilities. It was leveraged to devastating effect during warfighting in the nineties and proved that space capabilities could transform air, ground, and naval power. It also spurred steep growth in the U.S. space industry, which had both first mover advantage and generous government contracts to grow its knowledge base. In subsequent years, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and Russia have sought to neutralize the advantage by developing strike and counterstrike capabilities of U.S. systems through kinetic, non-kinetic, electronic, and cyber-attacks. They have also sought to develop their own industrial base to compete with U.S. industry.

Space: May 30, 2022

The Need for Speed: Leveraging Commercial Space Markets to Accelerate U.S. National Interests in Space

The United States’ space superiority is being challenged by the pacing threats of China and Russia. Both countries understand the United States’ economic dependence on space and the degree to which American military advantages rely on space-based assets. They have, in turn, developed capabilities and strategies to deny use of these advantages in the event of conflict. At the same time, a revolution is underway in the commercial space industry that has led to an explosion of new companies, capabilities, and business models that are democratizing access to space and rapidly increasing the opportunities available to the U.S., our allies, and partners.

Strategic Materials May 31, 2024

Mining for the Future: The Critical Role of Strategic Materials in U.S. National Security

The United States faces significant challenges in securing supply chains for strategic materials crucial to national security and economic prosperity. With rising global demand for non-fuel minerals essential for advanced technologies, defense, and renewable energy, the U.S. must enhance supply chain resilience to reduce dependence on foreign sources, particularly China. China has established dominance in the strategic materials market through aggressive investments in mining and processing, giving it an advantage in the global supply chain. This includes state-backed initiatives in mining, refining, and midstream processing, as well as leveraging its position as a manufacturing hub. As a result, the U.S. is at a strategic disadvantage in this critical sector, especially amid global competition. The mining industry also faces challenges, including long development timelines, high capital investments, and market volatility, which complicate profitability and project support. Developing new mines can take over a decade and involves significant financial risk due to the cyclical nature of mineral markets. To maintain a competitive edge, companies must innovate in extraction methods and sustainability while optimizing operational efficiency.

Strategic Materials: May 30, 2023

Securing the Strategic Materials Supply Chain

In the case of military aggression by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) against Taiwan, economic shockwaves would ripple across the Pacific. How can the U.S. prepare America’s defense industrial base for this contingency? The answer begins with ensuring access to strategic materials – the essential elements that form the foundation of the modern economy. Since the end of the Cold War, the PRC has cornered the market on a wide range of minerals and downstream processing that converts ore into modern life’s building block materials. More troubling, the PRC has also demonstrated a willingness to flex its power by temporarily cutting off exports of strategic materials to America’s partners and allies, as it did with rare earth elements in 2010 and threatened to do in 2017.

Strategic Materials: May 30, 2022

Toward an Industrial Security Strategy to Safeguard Access to Critical Minerals

Access to minerals is critical to U.S. economic and national security. However, in recent years, China and Russia have gained strategic advantages in critical mineral global supply chains, introducing unacceptable risks to the U.S. industrial base. In response, the United States must develop and execute a comprehensive, long-term industrial security strategy with its allies and partners to expand reliable and assured access to critical minerals.

Transportation (formerly Global Agility): May 30, 2022

Sustaining the U.S. Advantage in Global Transportation and Logistics

The U.S. transportation and logistics (T&L) ecosystem – composed of multiple sectors through a complex system of freight forwarding, storage, and distribution – is an essential pillar of the economy and contributes to U.S. economic prosperity and thus U.S. national security. This paper provides a brief overview of U.S. Deep Sea Shipping, Inland Waterways, Ports and Harbors, Railways, Trucking, Air Freight, and Warehousing sectors of the T&L ecosystem. It also considers how digital infrastructure bridges and connects each of these elements. By analyzing T&L’s role in supporting the U.S. and global economy, national security, and its contribution to mobilization efforts, the paper identifies significant issues and concerns within the T&L ecosystem. It concludes with policy recommendations to strengthen the U.S. position.

Transportation (formerly Global Agility): May 30, 2023

Sustaining Global Power Through U.S. Transportation Infrastructure: Setting the Conditions for Optimal Multimodal Logistics

The United States’ dependence on uncoordinated public and private investment across the transportation and logistics ecosystem (trucking, railroad, air freight, port and harbor, inland waterway, deep-sea shipping, and warehousing industry) puts the nation’s ability to mobilize for major military action at risk. Despite various laws and government programs designed to protect the U.S. industry, recent wide-ranging supply chain chaos exposed systemic vulnerabilities which impinge on industrial, consumer, and national security interests. As economic activity normalizes in the wake of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 pandemic, there is no expectation that the various corporate and government entities will construct a robust, long-lasting, system-wide framework to repair these exposures.