Cyber (formerly Information and Communications Technology): May 30, 2023

Safeguarding Cyberspace: The Imperative for Reform and Rebalance

The United States (US) will most likely continue to suffer unacceptable losses in strategic competition with autocracies in cyberspace until it shapes the cyberspace domain by improving cyberspace attention, leadership, and governance, fostering a more collaborative relationship with private industry to advance digital literacy and cybersecurity, and involving more offensive cyberspace operations through integrated deterrence via defend forward and persistent engagement strategies. Allies and partners should be engaged to ensure synchronous policies. The 2023 National Cybersecurity Strategy (NCS), though appropriately advancing cybersecurity, will unlikely bend the positive slope of Intellectual Property (IP) theft, ransomware loss, malign cyber information operations (CIO), and ongoing cyberspace threats to US critical infrastructure by Russia and China. The US remains largely timid in cyberspace, especially in punishing malign actors, fearing escalation to kinetic conflict, and limits itself to cybersecurity. To date, US operations involving denial capabilities have not resulted in escalation to military conflict.

Cyber (formerly Information and Communications Technology): May 30, 2022

Networked Power: Addressing the Role of Networking and Communication Technologies in 21st-century Influence Operations

Adversaries have long used propaganda, disinformation, and deception to gain an advantage over opponents, shape how they think, control the flow of information, and attempt to win wars without fighting. The evolution of networking and communication technology (NCT) over time has expanded the reach and potential effectiveness of these efforts. Social media has emerged as such a powerful tool that some describe it as a weapon of modern warfare. It doesn’t stop there—online messaging, gaming, financial technology, artificial intelligence (AI), and a slew of other NCT have revolutionized the adversary’s tool kits for propaganda and deception.

Electromagnetic Warfare: May 30, 2023

Electromagnetic Warfare Roadblocks: Stifling Innovation and Operational Effectiveness

The United States must innovate and operationalize electromagnetic warfare (EW) capability across the electromagnetic spectrum (EMS) or U.S. national security will be at risk. Superiority in the EMS maneuver space is a fundamental precursor that enables the Department of Defense (DoD) to successfully operate in all domains and achieve the goals of the National Defense Strategy. The ability to operate freely within the EMS – at the time, place, and parameters of the nation’s choosing – is no longer guaranteed within today’s geopolitical environment. While acute threats like Russia pose significant EMS threats, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) presents the United States with its most significant pacing challenge. China fuses innovation across civil and military spheres, which enables it to make technological advances quickly. To maintain EMS superiority, the United States must remove roadblocks and impediments that slow EW innovation and prevent EW operational effectiveness.

Energy: May 30, 2023

Maximizing the First 5% of GDP: An Optimistic Assessment of the United States Energy Sector and Policy Recommendations for the Future

Currently, there is considerable pessimism in the United States. Inflation, political polarization, debt brinksmanship, and protracted conflict dominate headlines. However, the mood is noticeably different in the energy sector. Energy is one of America’s greatest strengths, and after decades of languish and underinvestment (in certain parts of the industry), the sector may now be positioned to lead a new era of American leadership and growth. For the first time in decades, there is significant investment from the federal government, and the private sector and academia are eager to accept the challenges the administration has articulated.

Energy: May 30, 2022

Energy Industry Study Report

This paper documents a top-level exploration of the global energy industry and its ramifications for the United States’ enduring interests and national security. Prior scholars at National Defense University conducted similar research and documented their results within publicly available reports. Current students examined reports from 2009 and 2018 to find gaps in the research and analyze trends within the energy industry. Previous reports conducted a point-in-time analysis of the energy industry and are therefore ripe for an update.

Environment: May 30, 2023

Environment and Climate Industry Study 2023

The Environment and Climate Industry Study has sought to assess U.S. and international competitiveness in the environment/climate sector(s) of business, within the context of national security, broadly defined. The Environment/Climate industry is – as its label suggests, but also as a function of the numerous constituent industries that comprise it – essentially an industry of industries. Considering its long-standing presence and the many corporate mergers and acquisitions that have basically run their course, it is a mature industry. And, by virtue of its global reach; its contributions to national interests, aims, and priorities; and its measurable impact on the economy, it is truly a strategic industry. Although U.S. firms are at the forefront of the environmental sector, the United States is, at best, a mid-tier player compared to other countries in terms of overall national environmental performance. As such, this study concludes that for the United States to prevail strategically and keep healthy competition from devolving into unhealthy conflict, public- and private-sector decisionmakers alike must undertake a number of potentially transformative policy reforms.

Environment: May 30, 2022

Environment and Climate Industry Study

The overarching purpose of the Environment & Climate Industry Study is to assess U.S. and international competitiveness in the environmental and climate sector(s) of industry within the context of national security, broadly defined. The environmental industry includes firms providing a wide array of goods and services, all with an environmental aim — from waste management and environmental protection to water utilities and regulatory compliance. The related climate change industry includes those activities aimed at minimizing the negative impacts of human activity on the climate, like renewable energy, green buildings, and adaptation and mitigation efforts designed to help society cope with climate-related events without sacrificing quality of life. Firms operating in this “industry of industries” face numerous challenges, not the least of which is ideological. Widely identified as a national security threat, climate change is altering the way many on the planet live and contributing to geopolitical flashpoints that affect human, national, and global security. The U.S. government must recognize (a) the dependency of its economic strength on global environmental security, and (b) its leadership role in shaping environmental, climate, and economic policies, both domestically and internationally. By leveraging the strength of U.S. environmental firms that are already shaping market and consumer behavior, government can accelerate mitigation and adaptation efforts, embrace innovation that increases efficiency, sustainability, and resilience, and produce stronger domestic and global economies, with attendant benefits to human, environmental, national, and global security.

Finance (formerly Financial Services): May 30, 2023

Limitations of the U.S. Finance Industry in an Increasingly Multipolar World

The United States’ (U.S.) finance industry is a mosaic of highly regulated entities that generate trillions in revenue. Those revenues ripple across the U.S. and the global economies and become the foundation for capital investments into infrastructure, education, social welfare, and national defense. The United States occupies a unique position in the world order due, in large measure, to its robust financial markets and the singular attributes of the U.S. dollar. U.S. financial strength enables the pursuit of domestic and global objectives by leveraging the four primary instruments of power – diplomatic, informational, military, and economic.

Financial Services: May 30, 2022

Optimizing the Financing of Innovation to Accelerate National Security Capabilities

The U.S. finance industry is robust and well-resourced, offering a range of commercial and consumer banking, lending, and investment services to individuals and institutions across the country and the globe. Innovation within the finance industry is usually financed by risk capital firms seeking innovation with the potential for commercial success and high returns on investment. Financing innovation is considered a high-risk endeavor due to high startup failure rates, unproven technology, and the challenges of scaling to market production. Finding and applying innovation funding for potential defense market products is even more difficult, given the single buyer in the form of the DoD, the consolidated nature of the private defense industry, and the draw of higher, faster returns in the commercial sector. These factors limit private investment in national security-oriented start-ups. They also resulted in a divergence between the high technology capabilities in the commercial marketplace and the outmoded technology often found within the DoD and the broader U.S. Government (USG). To correct this imbalance, the DoD must take the following actions: increase and expand the investment tools within the innovation ecosystem, scale innovation ecosystem products to operations, and support America’s continued innovation advantage to be more relevant, complementary, and agile.

Land Combat Systems (formerly Land Domain): May 30, 2023

Land Domain Platforms

Opportunities exists to boost innovation in the Land Domain Platforms (LDP) industry, which consists of markets for combat tracked maneuver/fires vehicles, wheeled sustainment vehicles, and medium/heavy vehicles. The end of the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq brought about a downturn in the industry as occurred during the post-Cold War era. However, due to a combination of factors that include rapid technological change, the U.S. strategic competition with China, and the Russo-Ukrainian War, the domestic and international context are in alignment to enact policies that will have long-term, positive effects on the LDP industry. Congress and DoD must work together to set conditions that foster innovation across the LDP industry to improve the production of systems necessary to dominate land domain threats out to 2040 and beyond.