News | May 30, 2023

Maximizing the First 5% of GDP: An Optimistic Assessment of the United States Energy Sector and Policy Recommendations for the Future

Currently, there is considerable pessimism in the United States. Inflation, political polarization, debt brinksmanship, and protracted conflict dominate headlines. However, the mood is noticeably different in the energy sector. Energy is one of America’s greatest strengths, and after decades of languish and underinvestment (in certain parts of the industry), the sector may now be positioned to lead a new era of American leadership and growth. For the first time in decades, there is significant investment from the federal government, and the private sector and academia are eager to accept the challenges the administration has articulated.

The optimism in the sector reflects a growing realization that energy is positioned at the intersection of economic growth, national security, and environmental sustainability. While the demand for energy continues to rise dramatically around the world, the United States has retaken its global leadership position in the pursuit of ambitious transformation.

To meet rising demand while simultaneously cutting emissions, the current administration has called for a significant emphasis on developing and strengthening cleaner sources of energy generation. The administration’s domestic, international, and defense strategies have largely reflected this theme. As a result, the consensus among policy professionals, business leaders, and academic researchers is that the “energy transition” is finally taking-off, and America is genuinely leading it.

However, the speed and intensity needed to transition to a pollution-free, abundant, affordable energy sector are nearly unimaginable. Energy sources that generate harmful pollution still account for the majority of United States (and world) consumption and production, and those trend-lines cannot change overnight.

Unfortunately, building things at great speed is no longer a United States strength – public infrastructure and large energy projects have become agonizingly slow and expensive, with cumbersome permitting processes, complicated bureaucracy, and the prevalence of “not in my backyard” activism playing a large role.

To rapidly transition America’s energy sector, leaders need a focused, data-driven approach to freeing this gridlock. Key policymakers should recognize that the regulatory and administrative environment constructed over the decades (particularly for nuclear power and high-voltage transmission lines) does not fully serve the American people or its defense ecosystem. This, and an underdeveloped workforce, are likely the greatest impediments to maximizing the potential of America’s energy sector and its capital investments.

The energy transition, which is fundamental to growth and security, is no longer held back by skepticism or underinvestment. Instead, the constraints on the sector and the challenges it will face are largely self-imposed and policy driven, and, therefore, can be reversed. Our analysis shows how policymakers are doing just that, and our recommendations identify several practical ways that policymakers can do even more, paving a way forward for a robust, clean, and secure energy future.

Read the report →