Robotics and Autonomous Systems: –
General Douglas MacArthur is famously credited with saying, “Military failure can almost always be summarized in just two words: Too late.” Recently, the Secretary of the Air Force, Frank Kendall, resurrected this phrase to warn slow technological movement would place the United States at a strategic military disadvantage, with potentially devastating effects. As the U.S. faces a pacing challenge with China, with implications for the global world order, U.S. Robotics and Autonomous Systems (RAS) advancement will play a critical role. The 2022 National Defense Strategy emphasizes autonomous technology as an asymmetric approach to deter aggression, change kinetic conflict, and complicate escalation dynamics. The Department of Defense (DoD) seeks to mature autonomous technology through strategic investments in the domestic ecosystem and with U.S. allies and partners. The rapid advancement of commercial RAS drives the need for DoD to be a fast follower, rapidly incorporating commercial capabilities into military-relevant capabilities. Unlike many industries, the greatest obstacles to full RAS incorporation, commercially and militarily, will be cultural, ethical, and social. Accordingly, for the DoD to achieve superiority across the RAS industry, the United States must deftly navigate not only the technological challenges, but also the “soft” challenges: safety, social acceptance, trust, and human-machine integration.
During a four-month dedicated review, the 2022-2023 RAS industry study at The Eisenhower School of National Security and Resource Strategy considered relevant literature and policies, engaged with some of the foremost RAS experts and leaders, and conducted domestic and international field studies across the commercial and military RAS industries. This dedicated review provided important insights regarding RAS, the maritime, land, and air domains, and the strategic environment.
Robotics and Autonomous Systems: RAS refers to robotic systems both with and without autonomous capabilities, and non-robotic autonomous systems. Autonomy can be understood across a spectrum, with various levels of human involvement and risk. Autonomy is introduced to a machine through software, fed by data-informed algorithms. The DoD foresees a future in which humans and RAS will function as collaborative teams, reducing a warfighter’s cognitive load and acting as a force multiplier. The evolution of RAS in the United States is challenged by human capital shortages, cultural acceptance issues, ethical concerns, legal restrictions, and the strategic environment.
Strategic Environment: The RAS strategic environment is shaped by internal and external factors including resources, infrastructure, human capital, laws, competitor capabilities, market trends, geopolitical factors, and ethics. With a rapidly growing market, major U.S. defense companies propelled North America to lead RAS manufacturing. As such, U.S. government procurement policies play an important role in shaping the industry. Commercially, RAS has the potential to be incorporated broadly into everyday life, which offers space for continued market growth and increased U.S. competitiveness vis-a-vis China, Russia, and other competitors. Cultural acceptance will play a major role in shaping the U.S. market.
Maritime: The United States and its allies aim to achieve a peaceful and prosperous maritime commerce network using RAS as a tool for maritime domain awareness. However, this requires addressing maintenance, operational challenges, and ethical concerns; and potentially redefining the maritime domain. The sea presents unique challenges for RAS due to its size, diverse conditions, and capacity to host contested areas. The United States and its allies must work through these challenges, as assured sea lines of communication are vital during any armed conflict. RAS can potentially transform naval operations by addressing challenges in autonomy, production, maintenance, and endurance. Ensuring the ethical and responsible use of these systems will enable the U.S. Navy to overcome strategic challenges in the coming years. Commercially, maritime labor unions have stymied RAS growth, based mainly on their concern that it could displace a vital maritime workforce. While ripe with commercial and military potential, RAS in the maritime domain faces a host of challenges ranging from shifting military paradigms to human capital considerations.
Land: To prevail in Large Scale Combat Operations (LSCO), the DoD must incorporate RAS to manage the complexity of multi-domain operations and to perform other dirty, dangerous, and dull tasks. Based on the complexity of the operating environment, the technology to operate completely autonomous Uncrewed Ground Vehicles (UGVs) is not yet mature. Current DoD guidelines limit RAS UGVs to systems constrained by appropriate human judgment, international law, and ethics. Finally, there is a significant disparity between RAS budgeting for the air and maritime domains versus the ground domain, impacting the Army’s capacity to innovate and mature its technology. Conversely, the commercial market has made significant progress over the past decade with the introduction of self-driving technology. Commercial trucking also holds great promise, with several firms working to deliver autonomous trucks. The commercial industry faces a complex regulatory environment, which can quell investment and delay growth. This is important, as this technology has the potential to fulfill important military and commercial logistical roles, preserving human capital. With the potential to fulfill several dirty, dangerous, and dull tasks, RAS in the ground domain must overcome technological and budgetary limitations to reach its full potential.
Air: The U.S. defense and commercial Uncrewed Aerial System (UAS) industries stand on a precipice. The DoD is poised for dramatic technological upgrades for defense use, while the U.S. commercial industry languishes beneath its perceived potential as international competitors strengthen their footholds. As the DoD develops Collaborative Combat Aircraft and other human-machine teaming capabilities, success will be determined by trust and understanding between human operators and their autonomous teammates. Restrictive U.S. arms sales regulations have benefitted China and Turkey, allowing their industries to grow. Commercially, the United States UAS market lags behind China, Japan, and Europe. Relatedly, the Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA) complex certification and regulation standards prove challenging for U.S. businesses. Simplifying regulatory and legislative concerns could propel RAS in the air domain, both commercially and militarily.
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