Artificial Intelligence (formerly Emerging Technologies): –
The rapid evolution of artificial intelligence (AI) is disrupting the world. New capabilities demonstrate AI’s immense opportunities, but they also bring great risks: unsustainable power demand, worker displacement, and new ethical dilemmas that challenge global stability. As the People’s Republic of China pursues its goal to become the global AI superpower by 2030, the U.S. must act quickly and iteratively in collaboration with allies, partners, and industry to channel the disruption toward positive outcomes in an increasingly AI-driven world.
This paper concludes four months of engagements, research, and analysis by the Artificial Intelligence Industry Study Seminar at the National Defense University Eisenhower School of National Security and Resource Strategy. It presents key actors and salient trends within the strategic environment; the structure, conduct, and performance of major AI industry players; applications of AI that improve society and government; and threats related to computing power, data, people, and ethics—all of which affect society and national security.
Recommendations focus on immediate needs in areas where the United States (U.S.) government is uniquely positioned to help the U.S., allies, and partners safely ride the wave of disruption:
1. Prepare for Regulation to Compel Industry Transparency; Focus on Efficient Edge Computing for Defense
- Monitor computing power needs in preparation for regulation.
- Pursue low-power, edge options through research funding, prototyping and testing.
2. Sponsor Grassroots Ecosystems and Loan Programs for Skill-building, Up-skilling, Retraining, and Job Placement • With state and local governments and industry, fund grassroots ecosystems and innovation hubs, to mitigate the risks of workforce disruption and spur innovation.
- Fund educational loans for students seeking degrees in science, technology, education, and mathematics (STEM) fields and expand trade school links with industry partners focused on critical-skills shortfalls.
3. With Allies, Partners, and Competitors, Establish Global Norms to Promote Safe Civil and Commercial AI Use and Reduce the Greatest Risks for Military Use
- With allies, partners, and near-peer adversaries form a global entity to license major generative AI systems and create ethical guidelines and standards for application of AI in society and military use.
Mankind has reached an inflection point that requires the world’s leaders to provide guidance and establish best principles to reduce risks and create positive outcomes. To ride this initial wave of change brought by AI, the U.S. government must rally allies, partners, and adversaries alike to create computing-power-requirements transparency and prioritize efficient edge computing, invest in innovation and cultivate the right skills to strengthen workforce resiliency, and develop norms through ethical standards and guidelines.
Read the report →