Cyberspace and Advanced Computing Industry Study (Formerly Cyber) –
In the 21st century, cyberspace and the advanced computing industry are at the heart of great power competition and the rapidly changing character of war. How well the United States competes in this industry will impact its economic and national security. U.S. cyber policy influences the conduct of the government, business, civil society, and individuals, and it cuts across political, legal, economic, and ethical interests. Because of the impact of cyber policy on all facets of American life and the breadth of policy required, it is essential for the U.S. government to coordinate and orchestrate lines of effort to achieve desired objectives. This paper examines the current cyber strategic environment, surveys significant stakeholders and their interests, analyzes the strengths and weaknesses of key international players, describes the industry’s outlook, and makes recommendations for U.S. policy. Key recommendations include restructuring the U.S. government to orchestrate better domestic policy and international leadership, investing in innovation and human capital to remain competitive, and securing and diversifying strategic supply chains.
Strategic Environment
The strategic environment related to cyberspace and the advanced computing industry is one of increasing competition, complexity, and risk. In the context of great power competition, near-peer competitors are catching up and threatening to overtake the technological advantage the United States historically enjoyed. Technological competition with rising authoritarian powers threatens the U.S.-backed liberal world order. U.S. economic security is increasingly reliant on global digital connectivity; however, escalating criminal and nation-state-sponsored cyberattacks expose vulnerabilities in U.S. and allied supply chains and critical infrastructure. Little international consensus exists on cyberlaw, technical standards, or norms. The United States lacks a comprehensive, whole-of-nation strategy to manage a rapidly evolving and complex strategic cyberspace environment. Compounding the challenge, the United States faces a critical shortage of human capital with needed technical cyber skills and outdated procurement processes that do not keep pace with rapidly evolving threats.
Stakeholders and Interests
Key stakeholders in cyberspace and the advanced computing industry include a cross-section of government, industry, civil society, and international parties. These stakeholders have conflicting interests in ethics, economic growth, business opportunity, security, equity, privacy, and human rights. Closer communication and collaboration between all stakeholders are essential for meeting challenges in cyberspace and balancing competing interests.
Competitive Landscape
This paper assesses the global competitive landscape by focusing on five influential countries: the United States, China, Russia, India, and Taiwan. Porter’s Diamond and Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats (SWOT) analyses illuminate the U.S. position within the global competitive landscape. China and Russia continue to deploy powerful cyber warfare tools to influence, steal from, and threaten the United States and its allies and partners. At the same time, the United States is dependent on Chinese-manufactured cyberspace and advanced computing products. China rivals U.S. capabilities in some emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence and machine learning. India’s power resides in its software and programming prowess and its untapped, vast domestic market. India is not yet able to challenge China in manufacturing hardware. Taiwan is a critical global supplier of hardware, particularly semiconductor components. Growing tensions between China and Taiwan underscore the risk of concentrating critical supply chains in one country or region.
Industry Outlook
The industry outlook is one of explosive growth and rapid change. Key issues include the global semiconductor chip shortage, the evolution of quantum computing along with its impact on cryptology and cybersecurity, the rapid spread of fifth-generation (5G) telecommunications, the associated integration of technology into almost all aspects of life through the internet of things (IoT), and the widespread adoption of artificial intelligence. Other key trends include intensifying competition for skilled labor and natural resources, such as rare earth metals, and the transition to zero trust security architecture to manage the risk of cyberattack.
Policy Recommendations
To meet the economic and national security challenges posed by global competition in cyberspace and the advanced computing industry, the U.S. government should:
- Develop and implement national cyberspace and innovation strategies and establish institutions to coordinate and execute the policy.
- Strengthen and leverage public-private partnerships to improve cybersecurity and global competitiveness in the advanced computing industry.
- Strengthen and leverage alliances and international partnerships while establishing international norms in cybersecurity and emerging technologies.
- Develop, attract, and retain human capital from the science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) fields to improve U.S. competitiveness.
- Diversify and strengthen strategic technology supply chains.
- Modernize and streamline acquisition processes to fund emerging technologies required to meet growing cyber threats.
Conclusions
Rapid technological change in cyberspace and the advanced computing industry pose a complex strategic challenge for the United States. The U.S. government is not currently structured or resourced to adequately respond to the challenge. Recommended policies will help the U.S. government coordinate and orchestrate policy efforts, improving U.S. and allied cybersecurity and competitiveness within the great power competition. Enacting these recommendations will bolster U.S. competitiveness by supporting a pipeline of skilled and innovative talent while protecting critical supply chains that undergird the U.S. economy and, indeed, the U.S.-backed liberal world order.
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