Energy –
Energy drives economies and sustains societies around the world. Modern events—the deadly tsunami hit to Japan’s Fukushima nuclear plant, Puerto Rico’s electrical devastation from Hurricane Maria, cyber-attacks on Ukrainian electrical grids and the US Colonial Pipeline, and the notorious Texas freeze of 2021—demonstrate the dramatic impact of energy disruptions. In every sense, energy empowers states to be competitive and influential. This paper describes the strategic environment surrounding the global energy sector, discusses the current state and outlook of energy industries globally, considers the Energy Trilemma and National Security nexus, and examines the global threat of climate change, including related policies and implications.
In a time of Great Power Competition, the role of energy becomes increasingly intertwined with geopolitics. The world’s superpowers are in diplomatic and technological competition for energy resources. Russia’s increased activities in the Arctic region, growing Russia-China energy ties, China’s Belt and Road Initiative projects, and China’s expanding influence in Africa provide vivid evidence of the race. Given the increased volatility of the strategic security environment, the protection of critical energy infrastructure is no less important than territorial defense. Countries without reliable and resilient access to energy resources continue to be vulnerable and threatened.
Nations are coming together to address the threat of climate change via the Paris Agreement and related goals. The escalating climate crisis should drive a global energy transition from fossil fuels to renewable and clean sources of energy to reduce emissions, but countries’ varying energy situations and national security create divergent paths. As such, despite ambitions, these goals are currently not achievable without a significant change in global energy source production and consumption, the pace of energy transition, and investment now to meet goals in 2030 and 2050. The countries of the world must prepare for a new global energy environment due to climate change while pursuing their respective national security objectives. As principal champion of the long-standing rules-based international order, the United States must lead in this global challenge through a complex process of global energy and climate diplomacy.
The United States must hasten global cooperation on climate change and energy transition, given that domestic and international actions to mitigate and adapt to significant climate change effects remain inadequate. The United States is relatively well postured given its diverse energy base, strong market policies, and trade institutions, as well as strong innovation, financial, infrastructure, human capital, education, and industrial bases. Although it is unclear what the impact of the energy transition will be on total emissions, it will mitigate the worst of climate change outcomes by limiting emissions. This report proposes policy recommendations for the United States to best lead in the complex national security environment. Policies that reduce fossil fuel emissions or encourage the transition to a low-carbon economy also help US energy security by supporting the sustainability of energy resources.
First, the US must implement carbon pricing to allow low carbon-emitting energy sources to compete with high carbon-emitting fossil fuels. This policy requires the US to update environmental regulations to establish more comprehensive clean energy standards and enact either a carbon tax or a cap-and-trade system. Second, the US must increase energy education, research, and development. Establishing an understanding of the impact that energy has on our security and prosperity and investing in our innovation systems is critical to developing low-carbon technologies. Third, the US must ensure a “just” energy transition to avoid adverse impacts on vulnerable populations such as developing nations and displaced US workers. Initiatives that prevent job losses, reduce US dependence on minerals mined where human rights violations are prevalent, and assist developing countries in decarbonizing while economically prospering are vital. Fourth, the US must re-establish itself as a leader in climate change through preeminent multilateral engagements to encourage and enforce international commitments to decarbonization. The initiative begins with reorienting the US’s substantial diplomatic and development apparatus to prioritize climate diplomacy and setting the example by implementing aggressive domestic decarbonization policies.
This is a significant time for energy as countries around the world focus on their climate-impacted energy futures. US government and industrial partnerships must earnestly and urgently execute a sustainable energy security strategy that leverages international networks and relationships for current and future generations.
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