Space –
The United Nations Outer Space Treaty was signed fifty years ago this year; in retrospect, the world in 1967 seemed a simpler, almost quaint place in comparison to today. By that year, the idea of manned spaceflight had been led by the United States and Soviet Union from the realm of science fiction to science fact. The superpowers had created an impression that their fledgling efforts in space would eventually become routine and bring universal benefits. Signatories to the treaty were “reaffirming the importance of international cooperation in the field of activities in the peaceful exploration and use of outer space.” The impact of new technologies and scientific knowledge brought by the Space Race, while valuable, cloaked the geopolitical and military competition for supremacy between the world’s first space-faring nations. The U.S. would eventually win the race to the Moon in 1969 - a mere eight years after Alan Shephard’s sub-orbital mission. Consequently, America’s technological, economic, and political leadership were affirmed in stark terms with the planting on the Stars and Stripes on the Moon’s barren surface at the Sea of Tranquility, even though we came as Neil Armstrong said, “for all mankind.”
America’s leadership in space has now reached another critical inflection point. Military and economic challenges posed by rivals in space are mounting in scope and frequency. On January 11, 2007, exactly forty years and sixteen days after the Outer Space Treaty was signed, China successfully demonstrated the ability to destroy an orbiting satellite using a ground-launched missile. Since the submission of the last Eisenhower School’s space industry report in May 2016 the following has occurred: Chinese engineers started work on a 440-pound payload space rocket that could be launched from a Y-20 strategic transport plane in flight (March 2017); China continued improvements on counterspace capability using its Dong Neng-3 antisatellite missile (December 2016); and, Russia tested its PL-19 Nudol anti-satellite missile
(December 2016).
Although shrouded in secrecy, it is estimated that China’s space defense budget will reach $3 billion in 2017. This budget is part of their five-year plan that culminates with a Chinese space station by 2025, and to the longer-term objectives for manned missions to the Moon and Mars by 2035. The Chinese government, emulating aspects of the U.S. space industry, is providing financial incentives to Chinese start-up companies such as Onespace, a firm many analysts describe as the ‘Chinese SpaceX.’ Chinese authorities consider success in space as a contributor to its international prestige, a motivator to inspire its students to pursue careers in science and technology, and an essential component for national security.
In civilian use of space, foreign capabilities have also improved. In November 2013, forty-two years after the $137 million Mariner 9 became the first spacecraft to orbit Mars, India’s Mangalyaan orbiter arrived at Mars and became the least expensive interplanetary mission conducted by any nation - a rock bottom cost of $73 million. Iran manufactured and launched its Omid satellite in 2009 making it the second country in the Middle East (after Israel in 1980) to accomplish this feat.10 Some countries (notably China and India) that fifty years ago struggled to feed their populations, now have space capabilities that once exclusively belonged to the U.S. and Russia.
Space is no longer just a proving ground or a showcase for new technologies; rather, it is an indispensable medium that affords America with unique military, economic, and informational powers. Russia’s Sputnik 1, in 1957, caused a fervor with the American public and U.S. Congress as it represented an affront to national pride, and a potential threat to the nation’s security. Sputnik 1 was a technological achievement, and a validation of the Soviet Union’s capability of launching a nuclear attack against the U.S. homeland. Currently, although public outcry is muted if not absent, threats to American space leadership are subtler than during the heyday of the Space Race, and far more complex and unpredictable. Therefore, U.S. space leadership is critical to national security, and must be gained, maintained, or reinforced by addressing challenges pertaining to technology, resourcing, and governance. The 2011 U.S. National Security Space Strategy, supports this report’s thesis by affirming priorities, such as: safety, stability, and security in space; to maintain and enhance the strategic national security advantages; and to energize the space industrial base. The strategy, corroborating an essential point of this report, recognizes that “a resilient, flexible, and healthy space industrial base must underpin all of our space activities.”
This report analyzes the challenges, opportunities, and implications of American space leadership from three dimensions: technology, resourcing, and governance. Data gleaned from site visits, interviews, and firm analyses is used to ascertain milestones and trends. Recommendations are not limited to government policy reforms, but include those for the industrial base and civil society. There are numerous federal institutions (e.g. Department of Commerce, Department of Defense, and Department of State) that have overlapping (and sometimes, conflicting) influence on the space industry; therefore, improved coordination through the interagency process is an imperative. The report concludes with a call to action to the U.S. Interagency members, and proposes research that would inform a renewed agenda for space.
Read the report →