Energy

The 2017 United States (U.S.) National Security Strategy (NSS) includes “energy dominance” as a strategic objective, however achieving energy dominance is not a fait accompli. The U.S. energy landscape has changed drastically over the last decade, as hydraulic fracturing greatly increased U.S. oil and natural gas production. In 2019, for the first time since the late 1950’s, the U.S. became a net energy exporter . Though this is not equivalent to “energy independence,” this reality has strengthened the U.S. posture along the economic and geopolitical spectrums. The U.S. enjoys many attributes to achieve this NSS objective: abundant fossil fuel reserves, premier research institutions, a culture of innovation required to develop emerging technologies, and a commitment to renewable energy and the environment.

This report finds that from a national security and mobilization perspective, the U.S. energy domain is postured to support U.S. power projection and expansion of American manufacturing and production capabilities. Vulnerabilities exist in the U.S. energy eco-system to include: an outdated national grid that lacks resiliency and the capacity to implement smart grid technologies; a reliance on international supply chains, specifically the acquisition of strategic materials and renewable energy hardware from China; the weaponization of energy in geopolitics; and ability to counter physical and cybersecurity threats. Currently, the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) and associated economic impacts are exposing these limitations in the U.S. energy industry.

Although the U.S. maintains a competitive advantage in energy security and influence in the global energy eco-system, Russia, and China both exhibit strong energy industries and market power. Though energy security does not guarantee prosperity it can play a key role in achieving a country’s economic, security, and diplomatic objectives. Russia’s strength emanates from its status as a resource-rich exporter, while China is valued in its standing as the world’s largest energy importer. It is also dominant in many renewable energy equipment exports. In the context of the great power competition (GPC), Russia and China use energy in their quest for global dominance. Russia’s pursuit of the Nord Stream II pipeline has direct effects on NATO’s energy security. While China’s Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) and other global investments, many directed at gaining and retaining access to energy, afford them market control and influence over strategic materials. Additionally, both Russia and China are dominant nuclear power plant exporters and are pursuing nuclear energy partnerships around the world, rivaling U.S. and Western alternatives, and risking the proliferation of nuclear weapons.

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