Weapons (Formerly Munitions) –
The global weapons landscape is rapidly evolving amid technological innovation and intensifying great power competition. This paper analyzes drones, directed energy weapons (DEWs), and hypersonics and evaluates their strategic value, industrial base characteristics and considerations, and policy implications. Together, these systems form a continuum from affordable mass to exquisite capability, offering complementary tools integrated within a layered defense architecture for future conflict.
A central insight framing the analysis is that defense customers diverge in their needs. Some prioritize affordable mass to saturate adversaries, complicate defenses, and sustain attrition; others require exquisite systems to penetrate contested environments and defeat advanced defenses. This tension shapes weapons development, the industrial base, customer relationships, and policy. Drones exemplify affordable precision mass; DEWs occupy a scalable middle ground; hypersonics represent the pinnacle of technical complexity.
The analysis identifies an enduring imbalance in U.S. defense acquisition: a persistent bias toward exquisite, low-quantity platforms that limits acquisition and operational scalability. Drones offer low-cost, high-volume solutions with rapid production potential. DEWs demand significant upfront investment but could provide scalable, low-cost defense once deployed. Hypersonics deliver unmatched speed and penetration at high cost and industrial complexity.
Adversaries have advanced their capabilities across these technologies. Russia has fielded and employed hypersonic and directed energy weapons and used weaponized drones widely in Ukraine. China leads in hypersonic research, drone mass production, and DEW development. Both have deployed drones extensively in recent years. Meanwhile, the U.S. industrial base faces critical vulnerabilities given reliance on foreign-sourced raw materials, narrow supplier networks, and slow acquisition cycles that hinder scaling and allied integration.
A Porter’s Five Forces analysis reveals distinct market structures. The drone market is highly competitive with moderate entry barriers. Hypersonics and DEWs remain concentrated, high-barrier markets facing rising global competition. Government buyers exert dominant purchasing power across all systems although there is a robust commercial drone market, while supplier leverage fluctuates with material scarcity and technical specialization.
This paper proposes a strategy of “mass, maneuver, and momentum” to rebalance U.S. defense investments toward scalable, adaptable production. Recommendations include divesting 7 legacy platforms to fund next-generation systems; reforming Foreign Military Sales (FMS) to enhance allied industrial integration; adopting a 1:10 research-to-production funding ratio; and embedding industrial capacity as a core pillar of strategic deterrence.
Future U.S. military advantage will depend not solely on technological superiority but on the ability to scale production rapidly to deliver layered, adaptable capabilities that balance mass and precision. Achieving this vision requires structural reform across acquisition, industrial policy, and international partnerships, shifting from a platform-centric to a capability-centric defense industrial strategy.
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